NY -20 The Latest Numbers


By DIA, Section News
Posted on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 06:39:29 AM EST

DIA is taking part in a statewide blog effort to see who the congressional races are going. Look out David Brooks, we're coming for you like a bunch of rabid flying sheep with big teeth. I'll be posting links to the other blogs and districts later today. To the numbers:

The gerrymandered 20th looks like:
“District 20 sort of looks like a robot leaning against the eastern border of New York, holding what looks like the state of New Mexico on fire”
Current Status: Republican incumbent John Sweeney running for 5th term.

Voter Registration:
Republican: 197,753
Democratic: 113,096
Independent: 19,526
Conservative: 9,198
WFP: 1,124

THE BLANKS: 108,803

In 2004 Sweeney was opposed by Democrat Doris Kelley who spent $23,000 and got 33% of the vote.

2004 Results–
Sweeney, 176,729 votes
Doris Kelly 88,333
Morris Guller, 1,324

Meanwhile, the 20th only went for Bush with 53% of the vote.

2004 - Bush 53%, Kerry 46%

2006 Numbers: National journal rates this the 26th most competitive race in the country.

Cook and Sabato both have this as a “leans Republican”. Cook has it as an R+3 which isn't much of a lean compared to some of the races.

For more info and analysis on this race check out Colin Neal's post on Dkos.

For a look at some of Sweeney's top donors, check this.

THE MONEY

Sweeney at the end of last quarter:
Net Receipts: $1,180,874
Cash on Hand: $961,819


Sweeney at the end of this quarter:
Net Receipts: $1,667,611
Cash on Hand: $1,008,506

Change in Net Receipts: $486,770

Gillibrand at the end of last quarter:
Net Receipts: $716,479
Cash on Hand: $511,259


Gillibrand at the end of this quarter:
Net Receipts: $1,217,350
Cash on Hand: $754,333

Change in Net Receipts: $500,871

Summary: Gillibrand slightly outraised Sweeney in the last quarter and has closed the cash on hand gap by about a quarter million. And this is in a quarter where that maverick that everyone loves, John McCain, came and raised money for Sweeney. Perhaps Dick Cheney will be stopping by next?

Update [2006-7-17 9:44:42 by DIA]: In a rather clear example of how in the pocket of corporate interests John Sweeney is and how fed up the average person is with Republicans working for corporations and screwing over the working people, we have this.

Percent of Sweeney contributions from PACS: 45%
Percent from Individuals: 54%


Percent of Gillibrand contributions from PACS: 13%
Percent of Gillibrand contribution from individuals: 87%

So if you want a representative of the people, you know which one to choose.

This page is also enlightening. What is the top industry supporting John Sweeney? Republican leadership PAC's. Makes sense because as we know, Sweeney just votes however the Republican leadership tells him to. They get the votes they bought.

All of the following blogs should be updated today with the numbers for each race. CD13 NY13
CD19 Daniel Millstone at Daily Gotham
CD23 Bob Aubin
CD24 WFP Blog
CD25 Walsch Watch
CD26 Work Related
CD29 Rochester Turning

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+ gerrymande red 20th looks like:
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+ Colin Neal's post on Dkos.
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+ came and raised money for Sweeney.
+ we have this.
+ This page is also enlightening.
+ Daniel Millstone
+ WFP Blog
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NY -20 The Latest Numbers | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 hidden)
Don't forget the blanks (none / 0) (#1)
by albany283 on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 07:02:00 AM EST
Your voter registration figures for the 20th leave out an important number.  That's the 108,803 voters listed as blank, these are the people that choose not to enroll in any political party, the truly independent.  They're called blanks because they didn't check a box for one of the established parties.  They form an important swing vote in the district.

that is true (none / 0) (#2)
by DIA on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 07:10:58 AM EST
the "voter registration" text links to all of the parties for the district.  The big blanks number certainly is a wildcard.  And I bet we can count on the 2 registered Marijuana Reform members to vote against Sweeney.

[ Parent ]
108,803 - key votes (none / 0) (#3)
by Andrew C White on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 09:40:42 AM EST
The unaffiliated voters or "blanks" are a key vote here as local elections show that they are voting Democratic almost as a block these days and this has resulted in Democratic victories in places that rarely see Democrats in office and Democratic sweeps in place that sometimes see Democratic victories.

John Sweeney is in serious, serious trouble.
Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.
[ Parent ]

Additional fund raising numbers (none / 0) (#4)
by Andrew C White on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 09:47:31 AM EST
Kirsten Gillibrand started fund raising in Sep of 05. In the 4 quarters (10 months for Gillibrand and 12 months for Sweeney) Gillibrand has out raised Sweeney.

Also note that this last quarter was the best Sweeney has ever had and that he spent virtually ever cent of it (added only about $40k to his cash on hand) and still only has a slight 51% polling edge even in his own skewed poll. For an incumbent to dip below 50% at this point is a deathknell. Sweeney is very close to that in his own poll.

We in the 20th district are on the front lines of the battle for control of the House of Representatives. We need to continue to give Kirsten every bit of edge she can get so that we can rid politics of the likes of John Sweeney.

Volunteer, contribute money, make phone calls, knock on doors, host a house party. Put a bumper sticker on your car, a lawn sign in your yard.

Let's get rid of the politics of ugly and restore decency to Washington.
Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.

Another good view (none / 0) (#5)
by Andrew C White on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 09:59:14 AM EST
from Open Secrets is this one.

Note John Sweeney's number 1 contributing industry is the incumbent protection racket of "leadership pac's".

His number 3 contributing industry is lobbyists.

Lobbyists don't even show up on Kirsten's list.
Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.

DIA (none / 0) (#6)
by alfrednewman on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 10:22:15 AM EST
As I do want a represantative of the people would you be so kind as to us all who which people are contributing heavily to Gillibrands campaign.

Are they Mom and Pop store owners and local folks who live int he district and work hard trying to keep their financial heads above water or are they trial lawyers from New York City and around the country looking to insure that tort reform never happens?

I have NOT looked at the latest contribution list, but I know what was on the first one.
"What? Me worry? " "whatmeworry.alfred@gmail.com"

i dont' get paid enough (none / 0) (#7)
by DIA on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 10:37:26 AM EST
to do everything you are requesting.   But i'm quite sure we could find both trial lawyers, as gillibrand is a lawyer, and plenty of average people in NY state.   I'm also quite sure we wouldn't find any leadership PAC's taking money from Jack Abramoff and funneling it her, but I bet we can find a few on Sweeney's side.  

I'd be happy to get into a discussion at some point about how Democractic policies are better for the average working person in NY state than Sweeney supported Republican policies.   Anyone working and struggling financially in any way who votes Republican is voting directly against their own financial interests.  However, if they have religious issues that they hope to have advanced or they feel illegal steroids are one of the worst problems facing our nation OR they are very against people eating horsemeat, than I understand their willingness to sacrifice their own personal financial position to stick to their beliefs and vote for Sweeney.   Its admiral in a way.  You certainly won't see the Republican leadership they support doing that.  

[ Parent ]

You dont get paid enough? (none / 0) (#10)
by alfrednewman on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 02:41:02 PM EST
OK, DIA, you called my bluff.  I will double what I am currently giving you.  Hell, I will even tripple it 'cause thats the kind of guy I am.
"What? Me worry? " "whatmeworry.alfred@gmail.com"
[ Parent ]
You won't find the people (none / 0) (#8)
by Andrew C White on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 11:15:51 AM EST
you are looking for on either report. Individual contributions are listed only for people contributing $200 or more. So you'll only see the big dollar donors.

Further, if you look at the open secrets web site (linked multiple times above) you'll see a county by county breakdown that will show the counties in the 20th district don't contribute much money at all to any candidates. This is not a particularly wealthy district and under the leadership of Sweeney and Bush it has only gotten worse for us average Joe's and Mary's.

So yes, Gillibrand gets a ton of contributions from lawyers. Sweeney gets them from leadership pacs and lobbyists. Kirsten gets lots of contributions from NYC. Sweeney gets his from DC and NYC. Most of Sweeney's money comes from special interests. Virtually all of Gillibrands contributions come from individual citizens.

And "tort reform" (also known as protecting big business and screwing individual citizens) is far from the most important issue facing America and the 20th district today.

A minimum wage increase, protecting social security, energy independence, ending the occupation of Iraq, job creation, lower gas and heating prices, environmental protection, and many other things are of far more importance to the American people and the 20th district.

Not horsemeat and steroids and restricting people's rights (all favorites of John Sweeney).

Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.
[ Parent ]

Actually Andrew (none / 0) (#9)
by alfrednewman on Mon Jul 17, 2006 at 02:39:09 PM EST
Tort reform should be one of the most important issues because it is has a significant impact on the working poor and middle class.

Want a real number?  The average landlord has to pay between $300 and $400 a year per unit, even if the there has not been any losses.  This is up from $67.00 per unit per year in 1999.

Who do you think pays the increase?

I am not in Sweeneys district and frankly I am not a big fan of him. But if I was in the district I wouldnt vote for Gilliwhatever because of who is giving her money.
"What? Me worry? " "whatmeworry.alfred@gmail.com"
[ Parent ]

I hate to tell you this but... (none / 0) (#13)
by Andrew C White on Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 11:02:58 AM EST
... that's called bigotry.

There are certainly good reasons to have a cynical view of the legal system and lawyers as a profession but to out of hand denounce a candidate because they receive lots of contributions from lawyers... without any research or supporting documentation to support a claim that they themselves personally may have done something wrong, engaged in bad habits or practices or otherwise caused some of the legitimate concerns about the legal profession... is simply bigotry.

Now, if you can point to specific bad actions on the part of some subset of them then that's another story but there are, hard to believe I know, some very decent, upstanding, respectable people that practice law. There are some scumbags too but I've had the opportunity to get to know and work with some very fine people that just happen to be attorney's.

Substitute a particular color, race, religion or whatever for "lawyer" and see if it passes the smell test.

Come on Alfred. You can do better than that.
Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.
[ Parent ]

Bigotry? (none / 0) (#14)
by Citizen McLain on Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 11:36:19 AM EST
Is it therefore also bigotry to paint all corporate contributors to the campaign of your opponent with such a broad brush?  I am sure there are a lot of small business owners and individuals who like or agree with Mr. Sweeney and give him cash.

What you do as far as a vocation is not the same as who you are, in terms of race, religion, economic status, etc. Like the corporate and PAC types that you guys are railing against on this blog, the trial lawyers have a general interest in promoting the candidate who they believe will support their economy.

AEN is saying that he does not support their agenda and cannot support a candidate who overwhelmingly receives trial lawyer support.  How is that different than the opposition to the corporate constributors to Sweeney?

[ Parent ]

No one is painting (none / 0) (#17)
by Andrew C White on Wed Jul 19, 2006 at 09:13:23 AM EST
all corporate contributors as bad. It is a stretch to say it has even been implied.

What has been said is that there is a serious corruption problem in Washington amongst the Republicans in particular (though not only them and Albany has it's problems along these lines too as we both well know). Many of these folks are in jail or heading there and others will follow. Corporations, their PACs and lobbyists have far too much influence under the current Republican leadership. Not all are crooks but some clearly are. Sweeney appears to be part of the problem here. He has taken money from some of the ones that are clearly crooks. He has several instances of what appear to be serious conflicts of interests with certain industry PACs and lobbyists. It is unknown if anything untoward has transpired but the appearance of an unethical arrangement is certainly there. This is a very real problem not a hypothetical one and it is being pointed out.

Please note that nowhere has anyone called him on all the contributions he takes in from the building trades and unions or various other industries... I've mentioned the beverage industry but that's only jokingly because of his love for keggers, frat parties and telephone poles... this is not a blanket condemnation but rather the highlighting of his participation in a very real problem affecting who controls our government and the legislation that gets passed.

Sweeney does not represent the people of the 20th district. He is the Washington Culture of Corruptions representative to us rather than the other way around.

I would just as soon see some sort of public financing of elections so that such money issue are out of them completely. It is a problem for everyone. But you don't see me hammering him for taking money from transportation companies or new york financial pacs... unless there is the appearance of a squid for crow arrangement... which there hasn't been to the best of my knowledge.

But Alfred issued a blanket condemnation of lawyers and that's just bunk.

And I called him on it.

And he didn't like it. He probably didn't mean it in the manner it was said, I'll give him that, but the way it was said it was a form of bigotry.
Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.
[ Parent ]

Bigotry? (none / 0) (#15)
by alfrednewman on Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 04:29:36 PM EST
Let me get this straight Andrew:

Aw, screw it. I was going to explain  a point but frankly I think it would be lost on you. The "smell test" that I use usually is to determine how full of shit someone is and frankly calling me a bigot because I am for tort reform, and against the trial lawyers association indicates, to me that you are just full of shit and you don't have a clue.

Frankly, this is another example of how the Dean supporters opperate.  Don't like what I say start calling me a name.  Bigot. Real nice.

I just lost all respect for you.

I would normally expect an appology but, again, you have no clue.
"What? Me worry? " "whatmeworry.alfred@gmail.com"
[ Parent ]

I hate bigotry in all forms (none / 0) (#16)
by Andrew C White on Wed Jul 19, 2006 at 08:59:40 AM EST
so I point it out when I see it which tends to piss people off. My apologies but what you said was that Gillibrands no good because she takes money from lawyers. Period.

Now if you want to amend that to be more specific and say that a particular association of lawyers takes positions or advances causes and legislation that you disagree with then that is another story and not bigoted in the least but what you said was "she takes money from lawyers, lawyers are bad therefore she is bad" and that is just simply hogwash.
Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.
[ Parent ]

Where the bucks stop ... (none / 0) (#11)
by 1894 on Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 06:44:55 AM EST
Sweeney, like most incumbents, is a PAC whore. No doubt about it.

But it's way too early to say Gillibrand is "a representative of the people" because more of her funding has come from individuals. She's a challenger, so that's no surprise. Wait until she's elected, and watch the PAC-o-meter start spinning.

come on (none / 0) (#12)
by DIA on Tue Jul 18, 2006 at 06:58:59 AM EST
can't you let us have our little fantasies about a real government for the people.

Like other incumbents she will be a PAC whore.  But, she also won't be a water boy for this current adminstration (arguably the worst in a a very long time) so it will be quite an improvement with her in office.

[ Parent ]

www (none / 0) (#18)
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NY -20 The Latest Numbers | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 hidden)
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